Betting against the laws of physics. |
At the start of year 2006 I offered a wager of US$1,000 to anyone who would bet
against the proposition that a new record high global average temperature would
be set within four years. I offered the wager to many thousands of people who
have stated publicly that they believe Earth is not warming--- yet not even one
of them would accept the wager. I begged; I pleaded; I cajoled; I tried flattery;
I tried charm; I tried shaming: they still refused to take my money.
Every year I extended the wager another year, to give the deniers of climate change a chance to put their money where their publicly-stated beliefs are. Now, after FIFTEEN YEARS of the wager existing, and after my telling a huge number of deniers of climate change about the wager, not even one has accepted the wager. This suggests they do not believe what they have claimed to believe. This suggests that they know Earth is warming, even as they loudly insist they reject all of the evidence that shows Earth has been warming anomalously. Clearly, what they state in public they do not believe in private. The original wager was: WAGER ONE, YEAR 2012: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$1,000 on the proposition that by the end of year 2016 there will have been set another record high global average temperature as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset.That wager no longer exists: the deadline year (2016) has been reached. Year 2016 set a global high average temperature; I would have won the wager, except no cowardly anti-science clown would take the wager. Ten of the past fourteen years have been warmer than the year 2006 global average temperature, while four have been cooler. If any denier out there had the guts to put money on their publicly stated position, they would have lost, and by about +0.37c: A RESULT THEY NEW WOULD HAPPEN!
WAGER TWO: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$3,000 on the proposition that the decade of the 2010s will be warmer than the decade of the 2000s. That is, the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2010 to 2019 will be warmer than the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2000 to 2009, as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. The 2000s decade value stands at 14.59c and the 2010s decade was 14.81cThe above wagers no longer exists as the deadline year (2020) has been reached. The two active wagers still pays off US$3,000 if I am wrong and the wager-taker is correct:
WAGER THREE: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$1,000 on the proposition that there will be a new global average high temperature before the start of year 2025, as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. That is, one or more year(s) of year 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 will set a record high global average temperature.I have an escrow account with the funds in place; anyone who accepts my wager(s) will need to place their money into the escrow fund. Accept the wager: accept@warmwagers.org
A partial list (660+) of some of the international science organizations that have issued statements about human-caused climate change being a major threat to our well-being: pro-consensus-orgs.htm |
I also had a second wager that has ended. That wagers stated: