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Betting against the laws of physics.

Warm Wager Number One At the start of year 2006 I offered a wager of US$1,000 to anyone who would bet against the proposition that a new record high global average temperature would be set within four years. I offered the wager to many thousands of people who have stated publicly that they believe Earth is not warming--- yet not even one of them would accept the wager. I begged; I pleaded; I cajoled; I tried flattery, and I tried charm, and I tried shaming: they still refused to take my money.

Every year I extended the wager another year, to give the deniers of climate change a chance to put their money where their publicly-stated beliefs are. Now, after TEN YEARS of the wager existing, and after my telling a huge number deniers about the wager, not even one has accepted the wager.

This suggests they do not believe what they have claimed to believe. This suggests that they know Earth is warming, even as they loudly insist they reject all of the evidence that shows Earth has been warming anomalously. Clearly, what they state in public they do not believe in private.

That wager no longer exists: the deadline year (2016) has been reached. The original wager was:

WAGER ONE: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$1,000 on the proposition that by the end of year 2016 there will have been set another record high global average temperature as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset.
Seven of the past ten years have been warmer than the year 2006 global average temperature, while two have been cooler and one year tied with year 2006. If any denier out there had the guts to put money on their publicly stated position, they would have lost, and by +0.36c.

However I also have a second wager that is still available. That wager states:

WAGER TWO: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$3,000 on the proposition that the decade of the 2010s will be warmer than the decade of the 2000s. That is, the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2010 to 2019 will be warmer than the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2000 to 2009, as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. The 2000s decade value stands at 14.59c
I have an escrow account with the funds in place; anyone who accepts my wager(s) will need to place their money into the escrow fund. Talk to me: desertphile@warmwagers.org


A partial list (660+) of some of the international science organizations that have issued statements about human-caused climate change being a major threat to our well-being: pro-consensus-orgs.htm