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Betting against the laws of physics.

At the start of year 2006 I offered a wager of US$1,000 to anyone who would bet against the proposition that a new record high global average temperature would be set within four years. I extended the wager to many thousands of people who have stated publicly that they believe Earth is not warming--- yet not even one of them would accept the wager. I begged; I pleaded; I cajoled; I tried flattery, and I tried charm, and I tried shaming: they still refused to take my money.

Every year I extended the wager another year, to give the deniers of climate change a chance to put their money where their publicly-stated beliefs are. Now, after EIGHT YEARS of the wager existing, and after my telling a huge number deniers about the wager, not even one has accepted the wager.

This suggests they do not believe what they have claimed to believe. This suggests that they know Earth is warming, even if they reject all of the evidence that shows humans were and are the cause. What they state in public they do not believe in private.

That wager still exists, and I have added a second wager. The two wagers:

WAGER ONE: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$1,000 on the proposition that by the end of year 2018 there will have been set another record high global average temperature as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. The current record high is for year 2014, standing at 14.68c

WAGER TWO: I, David Rice ("Desertphile") will wager US$3,000 on the proposition that the decade of the 2010s will be warmer than the decade of the 2000s. That is, the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2010 to 2019 will be warmer than the average of the global temperature yearly average from year 2000 to 2009, as recorded by NASA GISS's GLB.Ts+dSST dataset. The 2000s decade value stands at 14.46c

I have an escrow account with the funds in place; anyone who accepts my wager(s) will need to place their money into the escrow fund. Talk to me: desertphile@warmwagers.org


A partial list (660+) of some of the international science organizations that have issued statements about human-caused climate change being a major threat to our well-being: pro-consensus-orgs.htm If anyone can find a science organization that does not agree with the consensus, please let me know.